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Ireland Leaves Its Mark

November 18th, 2008 by james

Barbers Shop didn’t quite do the business in the Paddy Power – but Imperial Commander showed enough to suggest that he can land some more big pots this term. He is up to 7/1 with Ladbrokes for the Hennessy on Saturday week, but Nigel Twiston Davies has still make a decision as to whether the horse runs at Newbury.

Paddy Brennan rode Imperial Commander to victory, and along with Barry Geraghty, who now rides for Nicky Henderson, these two Irish riders can leave their mark on the jumping scene in the UK this term. So, stick with them between now and the spring!

This weekend sees the Betfair Chase and the Beecher Chase as the main highlights. In the Betfair, much interest will be on Sam Thomas and his partnership of Kauto Star, now that Ruby Walsh is injured.  Thomas is an able deputy and if Kauto stays upright he is certain to win, with Exotic Dancer likely to follow him home if things run to form at odds of around 10/3. Do they ever?

The Beecher Chase over the Grand National fences is sure to be a spectacle – and it’s quite hard to make a stab at the likely shake up at this stage, but Jimmy Mangan’s Himalayan Trail at around 16/1 is worth a few punt considering the way he won the Midlands National and his last run in the Munster national. More will follow later in the week on the weekend action.

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Talking about Irish people making their mark in Britain – Stephen Ireland has been loudly hailed by Manchester City manager Mark Hughes for his efforts. Against Hull, the Corkman was brilliant for a side that have been underperforming of late.

I wonder could Mark Hughes be the next Premiership manager to get the boot. With all that dosh comes the pressure. City are as far way now from a top four finish than at any time. The January sales won’t change that statistic – and one wouldn’t bet on a summer splurge altering the landscape either.

In any event, let’s turn our attention back to Mr Ireland. His absence from the Republic of Ireland set up is disappointing. His trickery would surely aid the cause, but it seems for now that his mind is made up. Not even the collective minds of Henry Kissinger, Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter would be able, at this remove, to solve the problem and allow Ireland join up with Ireland.

And then there is the Andy Reid saga. I can see the plot thickening, the soap opera emerging. Dunphy and Keane have already had their say, with Liam Brady stating the case for Trapp and Co.

Thank God we have a match against the Poland. It’s a friendly, but a huge crowd is expected. No Duff, Keane or Dunne, but at least the likes of Glen Whelan, Andy Keogh, Darron Gibson will get a chance to shine. Caleb Folan will partner Kevin Doyle up front. Trapp will want to maintain his unbeaten run. Friendlies are often difficult to predict; the Poles are a decent enough outfit and have the wherewithal not to lose. Let’s be bold and go for a 2-2 draw at 14/1.

Watch Republic of Ireland v Poland highlights on RTÉ Two and RTÉ.ie from 10.25pm on Wednesday, 19 November.          

Ireland Look For Historic First

November 14th, 2008 by james

I have a vivid recollection of Munster beating the All-Blacks on 31 October 1978. For some reason, the nine o’clock news on RTÉ that evening is embellished on my mind – with Fred Cogley’s voice describing the action in Thomand Park and the mass invasion onto the pitch at the final whistle. 

That day was wonderfully captured in the play ‘Alone It Stands’ by John Breen – and the title sums up the magnitude of Munster’s achievement on that Halloween day. The Irish national side first played the All-Blacks in 1905 and have never managed to get the measure of them. Even in 1978, the Kiwis turned up at Lansdowne Road four days after their Munster ‘humilation’ to record a 10-6 victory.

Thirty years later and Croke Park is the setting for the latest instalment. Over 80,000 will attend, the majority of which will be cheering on an Irish side under the astute. Things can only better I hear you say! They probably will! But will it be good enough to derail Graham Henry’s side? Probably not, according to the experts.

The Irish are 4/1 to achieve victory - and if the fans’ really get behind their side in the historic stadium and BOD ups his game from last week; Ronan O’Gara can outshine Dan Carter (a bit of an ask) and Ireland collectively stay in the hunt for 80 minutes then anything is possible. Indeed, a home victory is 5/1 up to a margin of 10 points.

The All-Blacks are looking for a Grand Slam on this European tour and conventional wisdom is that they can triumph by 11-13 points (9/4). For Ireland to be ahead at half-time, and eventually go down fighting – 11/2 is the price for what should be an emotionally charged encounter.

Ireland v New Zealand is live on RTÉ Two, RTÉ Radio 1 and RTÉ.ie on Saturday from 2.10pm (kick-off 5.15pm).

Local Drama – Eircom League Style

November 13th, 2008 by james

The 2008 eircom League season comes to an end this weekend, with Bohemians as champions, and UCD, Cobh Ramblers, and either Finn Harps or Galway United, as the sides relegated. Last week I fancied Galway to beat Finn Harps; they duly did, though not by the score I predicted – 3-1. Nevertheless, they know that if they beat the doomed Students at Belfield, they will survive. 

‘Sport is drama without rules,’ well so Tom McGurk said in a promo for RTÉ Sport a few years back. Yet the final day of the season when much is at stake in terms of survival and financial reward/loss – can produce many twists and turns that would do justice to a Jason Bourne movie. Okay, that may be elevating the importance of the final day of the Eircom League a bit too much, but you follow my meaning.

If Finn Harps get an early goal against Shamrock Rovers, will Galway start to sweat against the Students. What frame of  mind will Pete Mahon’s side be in knowing that the First Division awaits them next year?

The Hoops are 3/1 with Ladbrokes to record a victory at Ballybofey and duly sink the Harps. That’s not a bad price. Okay, the Dublin side have nothing to play for and minds are now firmly fixed on the move to Tallaght, but they are capable exploiting any brittleness that may surface in the Harps play.

As for Galway, they won’t find it easy against UCD. The Bowl is a difficult enough to get something when required, but Jeff Kenna’s side have played enough good football in recent weeks to suggest their head will just be above the parapet come 9.30pm on Friday.  A 2-1 victory for them at 7/1 would be worth taking, however a 0-0 scoreline (6/1) combined with A Shamrock Rovers victory, might also be worth a flutter.

Watch UCD v Galway United live on RTÉ Two television and www.rte.ie/live from 7.30pm on Friday, 14 November.  

In my last blog, I had a fancy for Barbers Shop in the Paddy Power, not knowing that Nicky Richards had pulled him out of the race. However, the trainer has reinstated him and he will take his chance. He’s available at 8/1 in what should be a really competitive Chase.

In the Greatwood Hurdle, my outside fancy, Irish hope Silver Jaro is available at 20/1, while further up the market French Opera is also worth considering at 10/1. Let’s hope it’s a good three days at Prestbury and a taster for what’s to come over these dark winter months.    

Harry’s Instant Impact

November 10th, 2008 by james

Call him Harry Houdini, or the great wheeler-dealer, but Harry Redknapp has definitely brought new life to Tottenham since his arrival a fortnight ago. The club remain unbeaten under his stewardship – and such is the tight nature of the Premier League (three points separate 10th to 20th) that if Harry’s magic continues Spurs should find themselves in relative comfort sometime soon.

Excluding the ‘big four’ the North London club are 7/1 to be the best of the rest come next May and with the other likely candidates - Aston Villa & Manchester City – struggling at the moment - ’Harry’s Game’ could possibly have a satisfying denouement.

On Wednesday, they face Liverpool again, this time in the last 16 of the Carling Cup. With Rafael Benitez likely to rest a number of his big guns – the odds would favour a Tottenham victory on their own patch. 6/4 is the odds on then doing that, with Darren Bent, a player who seems to have rediscovered his appetite for the battle, 6/1 to be the first goalscorer.

In fact, Tottenham are 10/1 to retain the Carling Cup, and even though the competition is much maligned, it is fair to say that a ‘big club’ will more than likely lift the trophy on 1 March next. But which one?

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The National Hunt game really cranks up a gear next weekend with the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham. The featured chase on the Saturday is usually a decent spectacle, with Paul Nicholls’ Silverburn the market leader. However, the horse that I have a fancy is Nicky Richards’ Barbers Shop – owned by Queen Elizabeth. Second in the Jewson Chase at the Cheltenham Festival – a favourable weight should ensure that 10/1 now is decent value.

In the Greatwood Hurdle on the Sunday – a race that has been kind to the Irish in recent years – Tom Hogan’s Silver Jaro at 20/1 – a winner at the Festival – is worth a punt if he takes his chance in this competitive handicap.

RTÉ Radio Sport will have live coverage of the Paddy Power Chase and The Greatwood Hurdle.  

   

      

Autumn Contests

November 6th, 2008 by james

And so it’s the beginning of a new era, with Declan Kidney about to put his stamp on the Irish national side. Canada are first up in the Autumn International series – a gentle introduction I hear you say amid the backdrop of the new Thomand Park.

Kidney has gone for youth, with Keith Earls, earning his first cap at full-back, Rob Kearney, Luke Fitzgerald and Tommy Bowe – all looking to impress ahead of the All Blacks and Argentina encounters later in the month. 

It’s a match that Ireland should win handily against a team ranked 15th in the world. In saying that, Canada have been together for a while – and when you put the national jersey on – performance levels can go up a notch or two. Hopefully Irish pride will also be in evidence - enough to yield a victory margin of between 21-30 points (3/1 with Ladbrokes).

Watch Ireland v Canada live on RTÉ Two television and www.rte.ie/live from 5.15pm on Saturday, 8 November.

RTÉ Television and the online service will also have live coverage of Wales v South Africa from the Millennium Stadium commencing at 2.10pm. The Welsh, under Warren Gatland, swept all before them in the Six Nations, before South Africa gave them a spanking of sorts during the summer. In spite of that, the Springbooks have shown some wear and tear since their World Cup triumph, and with the Lions roaring into town next summer, they will need to gets minds focussed quickly. 

Wales are capable of beating anybody in their magnificent stadium and the Ladbrokes match betting would indicate that Saturday’s encounter will be close enough with Wales (13/8) and the visitors (1/2).  One would have to fancy the latter to prevail and on a good day for them a 10-point winning margin yields a 5/1 return. An excellent day for Wales could see them establish parity at a very attractive 18/1.

———————————————————————————————————-The relegation situation in the eircom League could be sorted out this weekend if Finn Harps defeat Galway United at Terryland Park, and Cobh fail to beat Bohemians at home. Such a scenario would see the Donegal side prevail, and after their victory over Drogheda last time out, confidence will be high. In saying that, Paul Doolin’s side have been in freefall for a few weeks now. The 10-point deduction handed out to them this week will be a further blow to their spirits – a further postscript to what has been a turbulent year for domestic soccer. 

Finn Harps will soon be relocating to a new stadium in Ballybofey – and would dearly love to host Premier League football there. I watched Harps face Sligo in a televised match a few weeks back and they were shocking. I would like to think they have improved a bit since then – as Galway – probably the better footballing side – will make them work hard at Terryland.

The race survival will go to the last weekend, as I fancy Jeff Kenna’s side to get maximum points. Hopefully, goals will decorate this encounter, and my bold prediction is that Galway will triumph 3-1 (18/1 with Ladbrokes).

Watch Galway United v Finn Harps live on RTÉ Two television and www.rte.ie/live from 7.35pm on Friday, 7 November.

Super Tuesday

November 3rd, 2008 by james

The Europeans went to California and plundered most of the dollars in the Breeders Cup. Now, can they leave their mark on the Melbourne Cup? Aidan O’Brien spoke last week about how it would be a ‘dream realised’ if he could saddle the winner. Assuming Septimus takes his chance (let’s hope he will), O’Brien will be treble handed with Allesandro Volta and Honolulu. 

Many see the race as a duel between Septimus and Luca Cumani’s Mad Rush. Both horses are 4/1 with Ladbrokes, though don’t be surprised if Mad Rush shortens further, in spite of the Irish Leger winner lining up. Cumani’s horse has a favourable draw in stall 4 and will like the expected fast ground – and has had the benefit of a recent run in Australia – when fourth in the Caulfield Cup. 

Dermot Weld has won big races all over the world, and has two Melbourne Cups in the trophy cabinet. He has booked Glen Boss to ride Profound Beauty at Flemington Park. Boss partnered Makybe Diva to a Cup treble and with Weld confident his charge can get two miles for the first time – support has started to flow for the horse.

He is available at 8/1 to land the spoils and Boss spoke in glowing terms about the way the horse worked on Friday last. Could it be Ladies’ Day in Melbourne this year?

A total of 22 will line up, so the race is something of a lottery. I wouldn’t entirely rule out the prospects of the Ballydoyle 2 & 3 Honolu (20/1) & Allesandro Volta ( 40/1) running decent races, while Nom Du Jeu (8/1) could go one better than his second place in the Caulfield Cup. Much to ponder in the early hours of US Presidential election day.

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Speaking of which, a record turnout is expected to vote in the Election to determine the next leader of the Free world from 20 January next. If you believe the polls, Barack Obama is set for victory, with the McCain camp hoping that people may have a change of heart inside the booth on polling day.

Indeed, cast your  mind back to the 1992 UK General Election. Labour, under Neil Kinnock, were leading in the polls and a Welsh occupancy of No 10 looked certain before a vote was cast on Election Day.

However, the great British public opted to stick with the devil they knew at the last moment and Labour faced five more years in opposition. I’m not saying that McCain is cut from the same tree as George W – same party yes – political ideology is different- but one does get the sense that America is ‘ready for change’. A much used term nowadays!

270 Electoral College votes are needed for victory. The votes are weighted in favour of the bigger states – so California would have more than New Hampshire, for example. If it’s a race to the finish, and Obama prevails by a whisker than 270 -289 votes tally at 12/1 is worth hopping on. However, if voters’ don’t have the jitters then a tally of 350-369 is most likely at odds of 10/3.

Coverage of the US Election begins at midnight on Wednesday, 5 November on RTÉ One television.       

Star Billing at Down Royal

October 30th, 2008 by james

When Kauto Star is good – he is very good. When he’s bad; well, he’s not exactly horrid, but his jumping would leave collective hearts in mouths from his watching connections and supporters. His owner Clive Smith reports the horse as ‘full of beans’ ahead of seasonal bow in the JNwine Champion Chase at Down Royal at Saturday.

Of course, these early season events can often throw up surprise results, but all bets would appear to be off with Kauto quoted as 1/2 on to land the Co Antrim highlight.  

The Listener, now trained by Nick Mitchell, will also be engaged. This horse likes Ireland, well more specifically Leopardstown, as last year he was unseated in this race. He is expected to chase Kauto home, but he may end up in a battle with Snowy Morning – Willie Mullins’ useful chaser, whose seasonal aim is another crack at the Aintree National. Snowy is currently 11/2 with Ladbrokes.

However, if you think that something untoward is going to happen at Down Royal, Noel Meade’s Afistfullofdollars (33/1) represents something of a gamble. Remember its early season, unseasonable weather and all that!   

Live commentary on the JNwine Champion Chase on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1 from 2.oopm on Saturday, 1 November.     

At Wetherby, War Of Attrition’s performance in the Charlie Hall Chase will be analysed by many, assuming he takes his chance. His comeback at Punchestown was an assured run, so lets hope the wind continues to blow at Wetherby. Available at around 3/1, Mouse Morris’s Gold Cup hero will face some useful sorts – with Monkerhostin sure to run well for Phillip Hobbs.

The veteran was third last year and is available at 7s for the first real test for seasoned chasers in the UK this term.

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The eircom League is reaching its conclusion after a turbulent season, well isn’t the world in a state of flux, with banks on the brink, the credit crunch, stocks falling and Russell Brand and Jonathon Ross (woss) behaving badly.

On the soccer pitch, Bray Wanderers entertain Cobh Ramblers at the Carlisle Grounds – Live on RTÉ Two television and www.rte.ie/live from 7.35pm on Friday, 31 October. Cobh are fighting for their lives to stay in the top flight; Bray are just above the parapet – and it would take something bizarre, and down right careless on their part, for Eddie Gormley’s side to fall out of the Division. 

At home, you would have to fancy the Seagulls, but Ladbrokes reckon that either team can win this at 6/4. Cobh will need to approach the game as if they are the home team, and with Galway United facing a difficult trip to Derry City on Monday, Henderson’s team would like to leave with something. With a strong chilly wind forecast, don’t be surprised if it’s a dour 0-0 (5/1).

UCD take on Bohemians at the Belfield Bowl. If the Students fail to pass the examination and end up with no points, they are as good as gone. Okay, Bohs have nothing to play for, but they will not want their League campaign to tail off. Defensively they are tough nut to crack, and that resilience should be enough to condemn UCD. If you believe in a stay of execution, then College to prevail over the Gypsies is worth just over 3/1.    

Raven’s Brilliant Swoop

October 28th, 2008 by james

I had a fancy for Raven’s Pass to get the better of Curlin and the O’Brien duo in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and he duly obliged for Frankie. The price wasn’t bad either at 12/1, considering I advised him at 8/1 and with my other fancy Goldikova, also winning for Europe in the Breeders’ Mile at 9/4 (advised at 2/1) some added return was heaped on the success of Gosden’s horse.

My other tips for the soccer over the Bank Holiday weekend did not fare out as well – with Liverpool rendering Chelsea a blunt instrument after their fully deserved 1-0 victory.  Benitez’s side are now 4/1 to win the Premier League, and with a new found confidence circulating around the veins of all those at Anfield, that is not a bad price.

Think about this way, if the Pool play the way they did against Chelsea and Manchester United in their other battles with their big four rivals - and stop dropping silly points against the likes of Stoke – then it is conceivable they will be champions next May.  Of course, there is a long way to travel, but I would take the 4/1 with Ladbrokes now.

On Wednesday, Liverpool face Portsmouth at Anfield. Pompey have just installed Tony Adams as the new gaffer, and with Peter Crouch returning to his former club, they won’t lack inspiration. They should leave with nothing if form holds up – but it will be interesting to how Liverpool go about their job – after telling themselves repeatedly since Sunday that beating Chelsea is only worth three points and that focus is everything. I can’t see a rout - and 2-1 to the Pool at 7/1 would maintain their lead at the top.

Torres won’t be available to face the south coast side, but he will be required to boost their goal difference if things get squeaky bum next spring.

And so Harry Redknapp goes to Tottenham and all is well in the world again around North London. I wish it were that simple – a win against a poor Bolton side does not radically alter the landscape – and it will probably take Harry the remainder of this season to sort out the mess. Arsenal will have no sympathy for their neighbours, and are nailed on at 4/9 to secure the victory, with Walcott 7/1 to be the first goalscorer.

Hull City won’t finish in the top four, will definitely not get relegated, but are a good bet to finish in the top 10 in the Premier League. Can they beat Chelsea? Of course they can. The reality is a whole lot different however, but they are confident enough at the moment to hold out for a 0-0 after 90 minutes. It’s worth 12/1 with Ladbrokes, and is something of a gamble, but it’s not as far-fetched a notion that Hull City would be third in the table at the end of October, if such a prediction were uttered last August.

In other matches this week, Manchester United, Aston Villa, Fulham can all record home wins, while Manchester City and Sunderland can return with maximum points from their travels to the tune of 4.4/1.

The Comprimise Rules concludes with the second Test on Friday, 31 October – Live on RTÉ Two and www.rte.ie/live (Island of Ireland only) from 8.30pm. I’m not a fan of this exercize – never have been – and Mickey Harte – strong opponent of it aswell – and myself would get along nicely discussing this odd concoction of a game.

In saying that, supporters in Ireland seem to have taken to this ‘game’ and Croke Park is always full for both Tests. I wonder what the view is Down Under. I suspect many sporting followers are looking ahead to the Melbourne Cup, while also keeping an eye on the Rugby League World Cup.

Ireland have a one point advantage from the opening test, where the fare was somewhat polite to say the least. I think Friday’s encounter will have a bit more tough and rumble – but the Irish, I am told, are well equipped to handle themselves – and take overall victory at 7/4. I can’t wait for it!           

     

Expect The West To Be Awake

October 24th, 2008 by james

The form team in the eircom League Premier Division at the moment are Galway United – seven matches unbeaten – as they bid to avoid the drop to the First Division. 

The westerners are of the many sides across the League who are experiencing financial difficulties at the moment – so it is imperative they stay in the top flight – and getting to the Cup final, maybe winning it, would be just the tonic for Jeff Kenna and company.

I know Pat Fenlon has done brilliantly in guiding Bohemians to the title, but surely Kenna would deserve the Manager of the Year Award if he can avoid the dreaded drop and bring the Cup back to Terryland Park the first time since 1991.

Derry City are Galway’s opponents in the second semi-final of the Ford FAI Cup – Live on RTÉ Two Television and RTE.ie/live from 3.oopm on Sunday, 26 October.

Stephen Kenny’s side have already won the League Cup, were beaten in the Setanta Cup semi-final, and so would love another Final day appearance. Not surprisingly, given their League position, they are favourites to advance at 5/6, with Galway 11/4.

I’m told Terryland will be packed to the rafters, and Galway will set out to make life uncomfortable for the hosts right from the off. Derry, defensively, have proved a solid unit this term, conceding only 20 goals. When the dust has settled, we may find ourselves back where we started at 0-0 (11/2).

Such is the way of the world that most soccer fans will be glued to Chelsea v Liverpool for the first half an hour of proceedings in the Tribes City. An intriguing battle awaits! Chelsea under Big Phil possess more guile than last season, while Liverpool have discovered the ability to win matches they would have drawn or lost in previous seasons.

If anything, Benitez’s side have seen their stock rise the most. But is it enough to derail Chelsea at the Bridge? I’m not sure, but I don’t think the home side should be 4/5 for victory, while Liverpool are a tempting 4/1 to do what no side has done since Arsenal in 2004.  

However, if the Pool defend like they did against Wigan, then Chelsea could cut loose. Scolari’s side are a bit more pleasing on the eye than Mourinho’s and Grant’s. Is a 3-0 home win at 12/1 out of the question, or can Liverpool’s new found belief ensure that they leave with their title aspirations firmly intact? 

It may be conservative to go for a 1-1 draw at 11/2, but titles were never decided on the day the clocks go back.

Watch Premier Soccer Sunday on RTÉ Two television from 8.00pm on Sunday, 26 October.      

    

Breeders’ Cup Challenge

October 22nd, 2008 by james

At Cheltenham, it’s the battle of Ireland v UK, friendly rivalry it mst be said. In the Ryder Cup, it’s a bit more serious, where some controversial (let’s be honest -stupid!) incidents over the years have threatened to destabilise the competition. In the Breeders’  Cup, where the Rest of the World gets to take on the USA, no rancour is present. Quite simply it’s an opportunity to land another huge prize at the tail end of the season. Beating the hosts is obviously a bonus.!

Remember, Lester Piggott’s victory aboard Royal Academy at the 1990 Breeders’ Cup – coming shortly after he was released from prison.  The success in the Mile race for the legendary Vincent O’Brien was a European highlight in an event where the pickings tend to stay rooted on American soil.

And so to this year’s extravaganza. 2007 Horse Of The Year, Curlin, is the warm order favourite at 5/2 to regain the Breeders Cup Classic, with a three pronged assault from Europe in the shape of Henrythenavigator, Ravens Pass and Duke Of Marmalade, eyeing to take prize. 

Watching Curlin win last year, and then triumph in the Dubai World Cup in March – you would have to be impressed with Steve Asmussen’s horse. However, much talk has surrounded his ability to handle the new Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita and the nature of the challenge from the O’Brien and Gosden hopefuls.

Henrythenavigator has had a fantastic year and it would be great to see him finish off the campaign with another high profile success, perhaps maybe gaining revenge on Ravens Pass for the defeat in QEII. Gosden’s horse at 8/1 represents some sort of value in a race that will surely benefit from the absence of flying debris – an abiding image of recent Breeders’ Cups – when the rain lodged on the the Dirt tracks.

In the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Goldikova got the favoured draw of stall four, and with Raven’s Pass opting for the Classic – the Olivier Peslier mount is now as short as 2/1 for the race. Aidan O’Brien’s won’t be too disappointed with stall seven for US Ranger - and punters may be tempted to latch on to the price of 10/1.

In the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, positive vibes are emanating from the connections of filly – Fleeting Spirit. With the likely fast going over the six and half furlong trip, and with Johnny Murtagh in the saddle, owner Andy Stewart may be right in thinking she is fairly priced at 6/1-7/1.

In the Breeders’ Cup Marathon, you would have to fancy Jeremy Noseda’s Sixties Icon (2/1), who has found his form again, most notably when winning the Lodge Stakes at Ascot, to complete a hat-trick of Group successes.